This study explores the impact of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) on the dynamics of trade between China and the Mediterranean countries analysing the trade potential before and after the implementation of the BRI. Using an augmented gravity model and panel data from 2003 to 2020, we conclude that there is a complex and imbalanced pattern of trade between China and the Mediterranean region and trade potential exploitation is strongly asymmetric across countries.

By diversifying China’s export markets, the BRI opened doors in underserved markets like Greece, Croatia and Bosnia. However, exports to developed economies (like France) continue to fall short of potential, especially in high-value sectors like tech and environmental goods. Meanwhile, China’s import structure remained biased toward Gulf energy suppliers (Iraq, Oman and Saudi Arabia). The BRI’s limited success in diversifying imports beyond hydrocarbons was underscored by the continued unrealized potential in the EU Mediterranean and non-oil MENA markets (Turkey, Israel, Egypt).

Although the BRI changed the logistics of regional trade and increased infrastructure connectivity (e.g., the ports of Piraeus and Khalifa), it did not live up to its «win-win»